Wow, Sarah Palin is a ballsy choice. High risk, high reward. All along, I've thought that a female VP candidate would be a nice move for McCain. The Hillary campaign made it clear that there are a lot of women in this country who are eager to see a woman in the White House, and many of them seemed pessimistic about how soon another viable female candidate would come along. Suddenly, John McCain has given them one. There are probably a significant number of women who were already somewhat ambivalent about Obama who will now cross over to the GOP just because they think it's important to put a woman one step closer to the White House. A woman on the ticket will at least be a thumb on the proverbial scale when certain feminists are weighing their decision (assuming they're willing to overlook the whole pro-life thing). Heck, if McCain's health declines, we could have a Palin-Clinton battle in 2012!
Let's be realistic - there's also a big downside to this pick. 72 year old John McCain needs a VP who is ready to take over from day 1. He's been arguing that Obama is too young and inexperienced. Well, Palin is younger (she's 44) and less experienced (she's been governor for less than 2 years). Maybe the Republicans think Obama won't make a big issue about it because it will put the spotlight on his own lack of experience. But I think that while Obama has already made a pretty good case for why he's qualified, the case for Palin is much tougher. First off, we at least know that Obama is extremely intelligent. He went to one of the top 3 law schools in the country and became editor of their law review, which is pretty much the highest law school achievement. He then taught Constitutional law at another elite law school for many years. On the political side, he served in the Illinois state senate for 7 years. He's now been in Congress for three and a half years and has proven himself to be knowledgable on foreign and domestic policy in numerous primary debates. Let's compare that to Sarah Palin. I admit I don't know much about her, so I'm mostly relying on her wikipedia page. She has a bachelor's degree in journalism from the University of Idaho. She has worked as a commercial fisherman with her husband. She served on the Wasilla City Council for 4 years and then served as mayor for 6 (I think). That sounds impressive until you realize that the population of Wasilla was 5,470 (as of 2000). That's like the equivalent of someone where I live (NYC) being president of their block association. She has now been governor for a year and eight months. By all accounts, she's done a very good job. She has amazing approval ratings. Nonetheless, that year & 8 months is pretty much her entire resume. Again, I don't know much about Palin, maybe she's incredibly knowledgable about world affairs, economic theory, and lots of other things. But, she has limited time to demonstrate that to the American public. The VP debate will be incredibly important. That will be her one big chance to show that she's ready to be President in case John McCain's age catches up with him.
I'll say it again - high risk, high reward. Palin could swing lots of women voters and win McCain the presidency. On the other hand, if McCain catches a cold in late October, a lot of people might get spooked by the idea of a very untested, unknown person becoming the leader of the country. Generally, the VP choice has little effect on the election, but this choice could be the decisive factor in either direction. It will probably be remembered as either a fantastic pick or a terrible pick.
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